Weak authoritarian regimes suggest the post-cold war era is over
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel walks to the podium during a press conference at the conclusion of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defence ministers’ meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, on June 4, 2014. NATO defence ministers agreed on June 3 to a series of steps to bolster protection in eastern Europe after the Ukraine crisis, but insisted they were acting within the limits of a key post-Cold War treaty with Moscow.
DENVER — The growing international role of three authoritarian revisionist states – China, Russia and Iran – and the diminishing role of the United States raises two questions: Is the post-cold war era over? What will the transition period look like?
After both world wars, many expected a peaceful democratic world order to replace the old realist order filled with wars, colonialism and authoritarianism. After World War I, four empires disappeared, the League of Nation was created, disarmament agreements were reached and new states emerged in Eastern Europe. Hopes in 1933 were dashed with the rise of Nazi Germany and in 1939 the start of World War II that killed 56 million people.
After the end of World War II, hopes again grew for a new international order. There emerged the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, the European Union and over 140 new nations. But the Cold War (1947-1987) dashed hopes for a new order. There was no global war but wars were fought in Korea and Vietnam, and Eastern Europe became a Russian satellite. After 1991, the end of the Cold War led to democratic states in Eastern Europe, the spread of globalized economies and semi-democratic regimes in over 60 countries.
Now, we see China claiming ownership of the more than one million square miles of the South China Sea. Russia is grabbing Crimea and encouraging revolt in Ukraine. There is Iran, boasting of its nuclear prowess, threatening to destroy Israel and the United States, and giving Hezbollah arms to fight for repressive Syria. There are numerous civil wars and significant international terrorism. The status quo powers — the United States, European Union and Japan — seem unwilling or unable to arrest these trends.
The new revisionist states lack the effective armies and strong economies that Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany possessed. As descendants of glorious empires, the new revisionist states endured protracted humiliation at the hands of foreign imperialism and were heirs of major revolutions. Two were Communist states and third an Islamic fundamentalist state. Massive corruption afflicts China, and Iran.
The Russian army retreated from the center of Europe to defending Moscow. It performed poorly in the First Chechen War (1994-1996) and the Georgian war (2008). Lacking entrepreneurship, modern agriculture, a consumer society and strong hi-tech, the Russian GDP is only 13 percent of American GDP.
The semi-democracy of the Yeltsin era has yielded to an authoritarian Putin regime, which is challenged by the growing Muslim population. It faces demographic decline with a weak health care system, low reproductive rate and male life expectancy of only 62 years. Its trade profile of exporting oil, gas and gold and importing consumer goods and technology is that of a Third World country.
Iran is weaker than Russia. Its $4,900 GDP/capita, ranking 99th in the world, puts it in the class of Jamaica, Albania and Fiji. Its GDP is less than 3 percent of American GDP. Its military has no real navy, a modest air force and army.
Iran faces serious issues with non-Persian minorities. It has no Silicon Valley and took 30 years to close in on nuclear weapons.
Only one of 850 Nobel Prize winners was Iranian – and she won the Peace Prize. The Grand Ayatollah Khameini, as the absolute authority, allows only a faux democracy.
Even China, despite great progress since 1978, is far from superpower status. There are 650 million poor peasants. Its GDP/capita of $6,700 ranks it 83rd in the world on par with Peru and South Africa.
Air, water and soil pollution kill 1.2 million Chinese a year. The Chinese army is modest, its air force and navy limited and its rocket forces small in number. China has serious issues with its 100 million minorities. Chinese Silicon Valley, although large, lags well behind American Silicon Valley. Chinese have won three Nobel Prizes, while the US has won 350.
There is no strong revisionist power struggling to revise the status quo. Russia, China and Iran move cautiously because they are weaker than the West and distrust each other.
Even China needs 10 to 20 years before it becomes a superpower. This makes the current transitory era difficult, even messy, to negotiate as a multi-polar realist world awaits – and that does not even consider the future rise of India, Brazil and Indonesia.
Jonathan Adelman is a professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.
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