The Iran deal is a really mixed bag for Russia

KYIV, Ukraine — Russia may have hailed Tuesday’s landmark Iran deal as a success, but it includes an important caveat for Moscow.

Besides aiming to cut Iran's pathway to nukes, the agreement will thrust the Islamic republic back into world oil markets — thanks to the eventual removal of economic sanctions — and possibly lead to a drop in global oil prices.

That would tamper with the lifeblood of Russia’s beleaguered economy, already hit by Western sanctions over Ukraine and fuel price fluctuations.

A price dip would be partly chalked up to Iran’s re-emergence onto the European market, where Russia would be forced into fiercer competition.

Lower prices also mean less cash for future drilling and development, according to Mikhail Krutikhin, an energy consultant in Moscow. That in turn would result in lower production volumes and an emptier state budget.

“The return of Iran to the market promises nothing good for Russia,” he wrote Wednesday.

But the Kremlin shouldn’t exactly be freaking out, either.

Russia will undoubtedly boost its involvement in Iran’s civilian nuclear program, as well as probably renew its profitable sale of long-range missile systems to the country a few years down the road.

Plus, Tuesday’s deal might even provide Moscow with some leverage in its crusade to convince the United States to scrap its European missile defense shield, long a bone of contention between the two.

There’s little doubt that Russia saw the agreement — and negotiations that led up to it — as an opportunity to reassert its role in international diplomacy.

“We are confident that the world breathed a sigh of relief today,” President Vladimir Putin said in a statement shortly after the deal.

Experts say the event will shift both countries’ diplomatic course, as Iran opens up to the world, while Russia grows more confrontational over the Ukraine crisis.

“Iran and Russia are moving in opposite directions in their relations with the West,” Russia analyst Brian Whitmore wrote for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. “And the fallout from this trend will be profound and far-reaching.”