South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (C) and Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni (R) arrive at John Garang's Mausoleum to celebrate South Sudan's 4th Independence Day in the capital Juba July 9, 2015.
The youngest nation in the world is in crisis — still.
South Sudan, just four years old, has spent nearly half that time in civil war after the country's President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar had a political disagreement in 2013 that grew into ethnic violence.
Since then, regional leaders have been pleading for a ceasefire. And if there's any hope, that's where it is. Regional leaders want South Sudan to be peaceful and thriving.
On Monday, however, Kiir refused to sign the latest peace agreement, asking for a 15-day extension of the deadline. Kiir and his government didn’t feel comfortable accepting a provision that would make rebel leader Riek Machar the first transitional vice president, says journalist Simona Foltyn who has been reporting on the ongoing situation in South Sudan.
The origins of the conflict differ depending on which side you ask, says Foltyn.
“Each one of them has a different version of the truth. The government of that time accused Riek Machar, who was previously vice president but was dismissed by Salva Kiir, of plotting a coup against the government,” Foltyn says.
Accusations escalated into violence, complicated by the fact that Machar and Kiir come from two distinct ethnic groups. Machar is Nuer while Kiir is Dinka. The conflict splits along ethnic lines, which has complicated peace negotiations.
“It’s not only a political settlement between the two men that is now needed. It is about demobilizing an extremely aggravated and armed population that doesn’t trust each other,” Foltyn adds.
Oil further complicates matters. South Sudan is rich in the resource. Currently, rebels hold a large swath of the oil fields, according to Foltyn. And while this gives them leverage, she says it’s worth noting they haven’t cut pipelines into government-held territory. However the government feels the pressure.
“If they’re not producing sufficient oil, the government, which [derives] over 90 percent of revenues [from] oil, is really under pressure to find other resources,” Foltyn says.
While South Sudan’s neighbors are keen to see the conflict end, regional involvement has also complicated matters. Uganda is fighting alongside the South Sudanese government, while Sudan has been accused of supporting the rebels.
“This is making the negotiations much more complicated, which is why recently there were a few countries like the United States, China, the UK, added to the mediation process to try to dilute those regional interested vested in the process,” Foltyn explains.
All of these complications add up to a pretty grim picture.
“There was a lot of euphoria when South Sudan became independent and people just believed that the creation of their own nation would resolve all these problems of marginalization of conflict that they had to endure in the decades of war with their northern neighbor, Sudan. And of course their disappointment is very big that only two years later they plunged into yet another two-year conflict,” Foltyn adds.
She says many South Sudanese in remote areas of the country have only known conflict.
“The period of peace between when the peace agreement with Sudan was signed in 2005 and the eruption of violence was simply not enough to actually deliver any kind of services or development so that people would actually know what it feels like to have a normal life,” Foltyn says.