Yemen steps up Al Qaeda offensive
SANAA, Yemen — Throughout December, fighter jets had swooped over this capital city several times a day on their way to battle the Shiite insurgency in the north. From the rooftops of the Old City, it felt like the war in the north was moving to Sanaa.
But this week, the skies were quiet. The war against Shiite rebels in the north, Yemeni officials say, is winding down, and a new one has begun. The military is has made crushing Al Qaeda its top priority.
“War against them in a very serious manner has started and will continue,” the Yemeni prime deputy minister of foreign affairs, Mohy al-Dhabbi, told GlobalPost. “All the efforts of the country is dedicated now to fighting the terrorists.”
Dhabbi said Yemen expects international support, particularly from the United States, for the battle. “We expect everything, but not soldiers on the soil,” he said.
But despite the brave talk of a military offensive, some question whether the weak and corrupt Yemeni government, even with support from the U.S., can defeat an Al Qaeda organization that can simply seek refuge in remote tribal areas.
Early this week, Al Qaeda threats to embassies, schools and oil companies in Sanaa shut down the U.S., British and several other Western embassies for days. On Monday, attacks outside the capital, which killed two Al Qaeda leaders, thwarted the potential attacks, according to the state-run news, Saba.
Investigators say the Christmas Day plot to blow up a Northwest jet to Detroit was conceived and planned in Yemen by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Yemen risked losing Western support if it did not take measures to restore stabilit. The poorest nation in the Arab world, Yemen is beset with Shiite rebellion in the north, a separatist insurgency in the south, a refugee influx from northern Africa, water shortages and widespread malnutrition.
But international cooperation will likely prove difficult because of corruption and inefficiency in the Yemeni government, said political analyst Ali Saif Hassan. Besides hampering the success of allies, the shortcomings of the Yemeni government hurt its ability to share intelligence.
"U.S. intelligence does not trust Yemeni intelligence," he said. "How can they cooperate?"
Dhabbi, the foreign affairs minister, said that at present there was simply not nearly enough aid.
Gen. David H. Petraeus, head of U.S. Central Command, on Jan 1. said the U.S. was planning to double about $70 million in aid to Yemen, but the Pentagon has since backed away from that pledge, saying that it did not know how much the U.S. intended to contribute to counterterrorism efforts.
Moreover, some experts say that increasing U.S. presence in Yemen will only serve to draw Islamic extremists.
In Iraq, the Al Qaeda presence was barely detectable before the 2003 invasion, according to the National Security Network, a foreign policy think tank. Since the invasion, however, jihadists have flocked to the war-torn country for the opportunity to attack Americans directly and disrupt U.S. military efforts.
Al Qaeda supporters welcome a greater U.S. presence in Yemen, saying it will only galvanize support for their cause.
"The Americans can’t get rid of Al Qaeda," said Nasser al-Bahrie, a former bodyguard of Osama bin Laden, "because they are weak, and Al Qaeda is stronger than them."
And some Western experts argue the U.S.-backed battle is hopeless because Al Qaeda members hide out in remote tribal lands, untouched by government, and are often tribesmen themselves.
“The U.S. does not know nearly enough about the local tribal and political geographies in Yemen to effectively target, let alone eradicate, Al Qaeda in Yemen,” wrote Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen expert at Princeton, in his blog, Waq al-Waq.
The Yemeni government has a history of negotiating, fighting and incorporating the tribes into the political system. But actually infiltrating and controlling tribal lands has proven unsuccessful.
“Al Qaeda itself, they are sometimes going to stay with tribes,” said Dhabbi, “so that maybe, through the years, has given them the impression that they can come to Yemen and start to practice their terrorist attacks or plan their terrorists attacks from Yemen.”
In recent weeks, however, civilian deaths in air raids on tribal lands appear to have alarmed tribal leaders. Late last week, leaders in Mareb — an Al Qaeda stronghold — published a statement on state-run media, warning Al Qaeda members to get out, according to the local media.
The statement came after a government warning published in state-run media to the tribes, according to the Yemen Observer. Tribesmen were ordered to banish Al Qaeda members from Mareb, or, “have the same fate as their comrades in Arhab, Abyan and Shabwah,” according to the Observer.
The three provinces have all been targets of U.S.-led air raids against Al Qaeda. And while the attacks were hailed as a success by the Yemeni and U.S. governments, local media has reported as many as 69 civilian deaths, including women and children.
The Yemeni government insists that it does not target civilians, though refugees from the northern war say government air raids do not distinguish between regular people and insurgents, who operate from villages.
The recent attacks prompted protests, and warnings from Yemeni officials to the U.S. “If the U.S. insists on sending its troops to Yemen, the whole Yemeni people will turn to the Al Qaeda,” Yemeni lawmaker Shawqi al-Qadhi was quoted as saying last week in the Yemen Times.
The Yemeni government hopes that the people, namely the tribes, will force Al Qaeda out of hiding. But tribal areas also actively battle the government, and are unlikely to assist in the fight against Al Qaeda.
As long as Al Qaeda remains in the tribal areas, it will be impossible for the government to defeat it with weapons alone, said Abdurahman al-Marwani, the head of the Dar al-Salaam Organization, that works with tribes to resolve conflicts and reduce arms.
“The government cannot get to Al Qaeda,” he said. “The people can help the government.”