Last summer, tens of thousands of people came out to the street to protest Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ president of more than 26 years. It all followed a familiar pattern: a rigged election and mass protest and violence followed by political repression including imprisonment, and in some cases, exile. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition to Alexander Lukashenko is in exile in Lithuania, along with many of her advisors. Host Marco Werman speaks with Franak Viačorka, senior adviser to Tsikhanouskaya.TRANSCRIPT:Marco Werman:Let’s turn our attention to the former Soviet Republic of Belarus most opposition leaders there have either been in exile or in prison in Belarus for months — following protests last summer that carried into the fall.They were demonstrating against the rigged election of President Alexander Lukashenko who has ruled the country for more than 26 years. Now exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is calling people to hit the streets again.With me now is Franak Viačorka, senior adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.You and Ms. Tsikhanouskaya are both exiled in Lithuania, along with other opposition advisors. Tsikhanouskaya has been there since August. What have you and your team been doing?What are you able to do in exile? Franak Viačorka:You’re right that it’s impossible to do everything when you are in different country, that the real heroes are those who are continuing fighting in Belarus, in cities, towns, organizing protests every day and who are risking with their freedom and their lives and health by protesting against Lukashenko. We are trying to help, first of all, to raise awareness about the Belarus issue and to get support of different countries, European Union, United States, and on the other hand, to coordinate somehow, and to inspire, to strengthen people on the ground by being in touch with them, by studying their needs and coordinating their activities.Marco Werman:So the protests went into the autumn, are you saying that people are still on the streets of Belarus protesting?Franak Viačorka:Yeah, people protest, but not big marches — small small rallies. Three months we had big marches every Sunday, 2 — 300,000 people in the streets. But later, they became smaller and smaller. And now we have everyday different kinds of protests but they are usually 100 people, 150 people, in different parts of Belarus.Marco Werman:So how has the opposition movement actually changed tactics since the summer and fall of mass protests? And do you think you’re still effective?Franak Viačorka:I’m a big supporter of big marches, of course. I know, I believe that it’s impossible to make revolution without people in the downtown. When they are protesting, when they form the crowd, and then the whole country and the whole world is watching this protest. So I think we became less visualized. But the protest is ongoing. So at this moment, we are in this survival mode. We are trying to save infrastructure and build capacity in order to strike again in the springtime when it will get warmer.Marco Werman:Right, has the pause in large protests resulted in a drop in momentum for the opposition?Franak Viačorka:We lost the momentum in the fall for their change of government. For the transition, of course, we didn’t win in the fall. So now we are in the kind of stalemate situation, but I think time is working in our favor.Marco Werman:Franak, how would you describe the oppression that President Lukashenko has used in this, shall we say, winter reports of protests?Franak Viačorka:I would say that’s the biggest repressions in the Eastern Europe since the Second World War. We see 30,000 people detained. We see more than 1,000 people under criminal charges — 10 dead. We see so many victims of torture. Eastern Europe didn’t see such a crackdown in dozens of years and of course the society was scared. Many people are in frustration and the apathy, but I think no one wants to give up. Marco Werman:And you’re in Lithuania, how are you able to get current information like that from detention cells in Belarus, is it through the EU and their reporting?Franak Viačorka:No, we have a wide network of activists, we have 1,500 volunteers on the ground, we have human rights defenders who constantly report, we have our own agents and we actually have our informants in the regime, who are constantly leaking information to us. You know this is why I’m pretty optimistic because I see that many people within the regime are collaborating with us. They also don’t believe — they don’t trust Lukashenko. And they want changes, but they are not ready to defect.Marco Werman:So earlier this week, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called on Belarussians to attend nationwide street rallies in about a month on March 25th. So is this the path forward? More protests like last summer?Franak Viačorka:March 25th is the first date in the springtime and I think that will be the beginning of the new wave of street protests. And also, that’s a remarkable date. In 1918, Belarus declared independence and this date was prohibited by Soviet authorities and by Lukashenko authorities. So it also has symbolic meaning, especially now when Lukashenko is going to Russia and talking to Putin and trade in Belarus sovereignty.Marco Werman:Are you worried that Lukashenko now has the time to look at March 25th and prepare for these protests and that could result in more detentions, more crackdowns?Franak Viačorka:Absolutely. I think they are mobilizing all the resources they have, all the soldiers, all the military and paramilitary groups. I think they’re preparing to disperse protests, but I think that we still will prevail. Our tactic of peaceful protest and violent protest is very efficient. When Lukashenko will start shooting people and killing people, I think he will be detained, arrested by his own people right away. Marco Werman:It sounds almost like you’re anticipating that to happen. Franak Viačorka:That’s one of the possible scenarios, because we know Alexander Lukashenko is not a normal European politician. He will be clinging onto the power to the end. And if he will be feeling that he is losing control over the situation, he can take very bad decisions. Marco Werman:So earlier this week, Franak, Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Sochi, in Russia. There were photos of them skiing together, riding snowmobiles and having lunch. What do we know more about this meeting and their relationship and just generally Russia’s influence on the situation in Belarus?Franak Viačorka:Actually, we don’t know much because the official press release did not tell us anything. We can just guess. We know that Lukashenko came to Russia to beg for money. Lukashenko needs Russian loan badly, and we heard about $3.5 billion requested by Lukashenko, but we also heard that Putin refused. Putin didn’t give him this money. I think that now they are discussing behind the scenes to offer a deal. I think, for Putin, is very important to get some guarantees from Lukashenko in the form of Belarusian enterprises, pipeline or oil refineries, something that he can take as the guarantee that this money will be given back. Marco Werman:How much does that relationship with Russia and Putin concern you? I mean, clearly, Lukashenko isn’t budging. He might just raise the stakes, give his riot police a longer leash. Or could Putin be the thing that keeps Lukashenko in check?Franak Viačorka:Putin is the only reason why Lukashenko is still in power. If Putin didn’t support him in August and September, we will be living already in democratic Belarus, perhaps. But the Kremlin supported Lukashenko, supported violence, ignored the democratic forces and gave Lukashenko money in the most critical moment in October. And they also have a symbiotic relationship. I think for the Kremlin, the Belarusian case is very scary. I think the Kremlin is afraid that such a revolution, as it’s happening in Belarus, can also take over Russian cities. Marco Werman:Franak Viačorka, is the senior adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the Democratic Belarus movement. He’s been speaking with us about the latest developments in Belarus from his perch in exile in Lithuania. Thank you very much for making time for us.Franak Viačorka:Thank you.