
Gulam Umarov is the son of Dr. Sanjar Umarov, the founder of the pro-democracy secular movement Sunshine Uzbekistan Coalition. Gulam's father, Dr. Umarov, has been imprisoned since October 2005 on questionable charges, attracting the attention of international human rights organizations around the world. Dr. Umarov was drugged and tortured in prison, spent 13 months in solitary confinement, and 16 months without being allowed to communicate with legal counsel or family members.
Gulambek Umarov now leads the US arm of Sunshine Uzbekistan, which calls attention to the inhumane treatment of prisoners and human rights violations in Uzbekistan.
Dear Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama,
Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, a new Administration in Washington will provide the US with an opportunity for a fresh start in relations with the Republic of Uzbekistan. The vast majority of Americans know little about Uzbekistan, and its importance for stability in central Asia is little appreciated. Nonetheless, a new US Administration will be well served by investing in the development of a comprehensive and coherent Uzbekistan policy focused on the support of our limited, yet strategically critical, common interests. Among these interests are: support for Afghanistan, balancing Russia's regional hegemony, and ensuring Uzbekistan's territorial integrity.
Uzbekistan is located at the heart of central Asia and today represents the region's most populated nation. Our ancient cities of Samarkand, Khiva, and Bukhara found along the ancient Silk Road have attracted people from all over the world. Approximately the size of California, Uzbekistan is rich with mineral and agricultural resources, and has the most developed infrastructure in the region . Since its independence in 1991, Uzbekistan's exports of gold, uranium, gas, cotton, and other agricultural products puts it in a unique position .
The little knowledge that average US citizens have of my country is generally limited to the government's deplorable human rights record. Over the last 17 years, President Islam Karimov has created and entrenched a political system with one goal in mind, the continuation of his one man rule. Recent attempts to begin a constructive dialogue with Karimov within the framework of the Uzbek Constitution have been responded with imprisonment and torture. As a result, there is no real, independent civil society in Uzbekistan today. The only shadow of opposition to Karimov is a small, yet growing, underground Islamic fundamentalist movement that seeks to exploit the poverty and desperation rampant among Uzbekistan's vast rural population.
The Bush Administration's policy towards Karimov has been confused. After 9/11 the Bush Administration appeared to be signaling to Karimov that respect for human rights could wait, as long as he allowed US military bases to operate in southern Uzbekistan. But that changed in 2005 after the bloody Andijan Events that resulted in deaths of hundreds of people and possibly as many as 5000. The U.S. joined in a call for an independent international investigation into the killings and President Islom Karimov responded by changing the political alignment of the country to bring it closer to Russia and China, and ultimately calling upon United States to vacate its K-2 military base within 180 days. The next Administration should avoid a policy of extremes and seek to provide Karimov and the governing elite with, above all, a consistent and clear framework for both limited cooperation on mutually important strategic interests, and a vigorous dialogue on human rights and democracy issues following the release of all internationally recognized Prisoners of Conscience.
Despite Uzbekistan's human rights abuses, the US and Uzbekistan share a critical, strategic interest in saving the Afghanistan state from failure. The new Administration should clearly demonstrate its commitment to engaging Uzbekistan in Afghanistan's reconstruction by constructively responding to Uzbekistan's recent proposals to resuscitate its favored 6 + 2 Afghanistan contact group, and by fast-tracking the finance and construction of cross border infrastructure projects. In addition to providing a much needed economic stimulus to both northern Afghanistan and southern Uzbekistan. Significant investments in cross border infrastructure will also serve our mutual interest of reorienting Uzbekistan's trade and energy flows away from Russian controlled transit routes to the emerging markets of south and east Asia. While these investments will take years to realize, their long lasting economic dividends could be the new Administration's greatest contribution to stability in the central Asian region.
The new Administration should also make a realistic assessment of Russia's role in Uzbekistan's economic and political development. For example, it must be noted that Karimov and the governing elite were profoundly disappointed in lack of direct US and EU investment in Uzbekistan following Karimov's post 9/11 opening to the west. This perceived failure by the US and EU to follow through with support of Karimov's offering has resulted in de facto Russian control of Uzbekistan's enormous natural resource wealth. With sustained western investment flows absent, the new Administration will be forced to permanently cede Uzbekistan and all of central Asia to Russia's recently reasserted "sphere of influence."
Our final critical, common strategic interest is nothing less than the survival of the Uzbekistan state. While Karimov has been masterful in ensuring his personal control of the state apparatus, no man lives forever and it is likely that a new US Administration will, sooner or later, be faced with a potential succession crisis. Managing this crisis will be extremely risky as no one, including Karimov himself, can predict who will emerge as Uzbekistan's new leader and what centripetal forces the inevitable succession battle will release. Should ethnic or religious tensions boil, Uzbekistan does not have a political class capable of mediating civil strife.
The current reality should invoke the new American president to energetically pursue the broadest possible dialogue with Uzbekistan's governing elite. It is critical that this new diplomatic initiative distance itself from the Bush Administration's perceived support of "color revolutions" on one end and utilize public diplomacy on the other. Public diplomacy will be most effectively carried out with the help of already established direct contacts with people on the ground via various programs of USAID, National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI).
My homeland, Uzbekistan, is a country far away and almost unknown to the average American. During the next Administration, the average American may come to know Uzbekistan as the next, new bloody front in the global war on terror or as a successful example of a transition from repressive authoritarianism towards a more free and market-oriented, secular society. The primary responsibility for this transition will lay on the shoulders of Karimov's unknown successor. Nonetheless, the development and implementation of a comprehensive and coherent Uzbekistan policy by the next US Administration may play a critical role in ensuring both Afghanistan's and Uzbekistan's survival as viable nation states.
Gulambek Umarov,
Sunshine Uzbekistan