Some say the militant group Hezbollah has a good chance of winning a majority in Lebanon's legislative elections next month. The World's Aaron Schachter reports on what the reaction in the US and Europe might be to a Hezbollah-dominated government.
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LISA MULLINS: Today France became the latest country to break with U.S. policy and declare it will deal with whatever government emerges in Lebanon. The country is holding parliamentary elections next month and it's possible that a government involving Hezbollah might will emerge in Lebanon. Hezbollah's a party the Untied States has labeled as terrorist and one it vows not to deal with until it changes its ways. But it's not clear the Obama Administration will be as tough as the Bush Administration was three years ago when another Islamist party won in Palestinian elections on the West Bank in Gaza. The World's Aaron Schachter reports.
AARON SCHACHTER: It was a terrible disappointment. After pushing hard for Palestinian elections, the U.S. was dismayed. The Islamist party, Hamas, stunned the world, and by many accounts its own followers, by winning a sizeable majority of votes in Palestinian elections in early 2006. The Bush Administration responded by refusing to recognize Hamas in any way, shape or form because it was a terrorist organization that called for Israel's destruction. The result was two wars, the first a civil war between Palestinians, then a second one between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. It's beginning to look like deja vu all over again in Lebanon. This time it's the possible election victory next month of a coalition of parties led by Hezbollah. The U.S. labels the Iranian and Syrian-backed organization as terrorist because of its guerilla campaign against Israel. U.S. officials like Secretary of State Hilary Clinton have been coy about what they might do if the Shiite militant group wins.
HILARY CLINTON: We hope that the people of Lebanon make a decision that will continue the progress that we have seen over the last several years. So that is up to the Lebanese people to decide, but we certainly look forward to working with and cooperating with the next Lebanese government.
SCHACHTER: Most analysts believe the Obama Administration would likely shun Hezbollah if it wins, and refuse to meet Hezbollah officials. At the same time, though, they don't believe Hezbollah would force that kind of choice.
ABDULLAH BOUHABIB: Hezbollah has played it very, very smart in the past.
SCHACHTER: Adbullah Bouhabib is a former Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. who currently heads the Issam Fares Center for Lebanon, a Beirut think tank.
BOUHABIB: In the present 30-member cabinet, they only have one minister from Hezbollah, and he's the Minister of Labor. And I don't think the United States has any business with this ministry.
SCHACHTER: Hezbollah's leader has said if his coalition wins the parliamentary elections, he'll seek a unity government with the coalition led by Sa'ad Hariri. That group was made up mainly of Sunnis with Christian Druze parties. David Bender is a Middle East analyst with the Eurasia Group.
DAVID BENDER: If they won, you know, 70% of the vote and sort of could rule Lebanon and no one had any veto that would make people extremely nervous. I think that the most likely scenario is some sort of coalition government. No one in Lebanon at this point wants to stir anything up. The U.S. doesn't want anything stirred up; the U.S. has enough on its plate right now. It doesn't seem like it's in anyone's interest to do anything too provocative.
SCHACHTER: Most here say despite all the talk, who wins the elections matter in Lebanon matters little to the broader world. Lebanon's fate is actually decided in the palaces and offices of countries like Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Israel, and the U.S. For the World, I'm Aaron Schachter in Beirut.
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