A swine flu-induced setback in global trade might have an unwelcome effect on nations' efforts to prepare for and deal with a pandemic. Anchor Lisa Mullins learns more from Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
This text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI's THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI's THE WORLD is the program audio.
LISA MULLINS: Michael Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. He works now, as he has in the past, as an advisor to the US government on public health preparedness. Michael, we just heard in Matthew Bell's report about the possible effects of swine flu on the global economy. If, indeed, trade has to be curbed; if, indeed, global travel has to be curbed, to what extent might we be inhibiting our ability in the US to prepare for a possible pandemic?
MICHAEL OSTERHOLM: Actually this is even more complicated than just that. We have a number of American companies right now that have very critical operations in Mexico City which has literally been shut down since Friday, and they're producing many of the goods that we in this country count on every day. We often forget about the fact that thing that you and I really need every day, our life saving drug. For example, in discussions I've just had this past week about the idea of trying to close the Mexican border. It turns out that when we think about our response in the United States to a pandemic or even a bioterrorism event that we need mechanical ventilators—those things that help us breathe, for individuals who can't adequately breathe on their own. Over the past several years we've had a number of groups meet about how to ethically allocate ventilators. Well, the real limiting factor for someone getting a ventilator during a crisis like this is not whether there's a ventilator. It's a thing called a circuit. A circuit is a disposable devise that actually attaches you to a ventilator, much like a regulator might be to a scuba tank. And virtually no circuits are made in the United States. They're all made outside of the country. And one of the largest producers of circuits in the world is in Mexico, so that if we suddenly shut down the border we would be very vulnerable, how many ventilators we could actually provide. Border closings in and of themselves do not accomplish walling yourself off from that virus.
MULLINS: Okay, so give us a reality check on everything you're saying now. Are these the worst case scenarios? Do you expect what you're talking about to happen in any large or small measure?
OSTERHOLM: Well, first of all, there is no proportionality, necessarily to the severity, actually, of the pandemic or potential pandemic to what happens with border crossings or closings. People take extreme measures just because they're afraid that something might happen. Now, on top of that, however, if there really is severe illness in a given country that too will be an important factor in figuring out, in this country, do we have the critical products that we need? Few people realize how many of the medical care products that we use in this country and we consider important to our everyday lives that are made outside of the country.
MULLINS: Yes, but we're not talking about the United States being hermitically sealed and a pandemic, if it does strike, hitting all these countries at one time.
OSTERHOLM: No it won't, but look already what's happening where countries are beginning to say that, in fact, this boarder, that border will be closed. I mean, just yesterday you had the Health Minister for the EU indicate that non-essential travel to the United States should be stopped. And yet look at the very limited activity we've had here with the virus. From a proportionality standpoint the responses really should be reflected in one of the public health benefits. What are you really doing here?
MULLINS: You were complimentary toward the Centers for Disease Control for what their response has been. How would you assess the nation's general state of preparedness for a possible pandemic?
OSTERHOLM: I think that right now we have a long way to go to get much better prepared, not so much from the public health perspective but from the business continuity perspective, from the issue of vaccines, I think our healthcare system in this country is extremely vulnerable because so much of the everyday devices, drugs, all the machinery of the modern health care industry today comes from offshore. And so that anything that would interrupt trade and travel, including local production, will have an immediate and dramatic impact on the ability of a hospital, a nursing home, or a clinic to deliver its care.
MULLINS: That is Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. You can find updated information on the swine flu outbreak at our website. It includes a checklist on how to prepare your family, your business, or your local community in the event of a pandemic. That's all at the world.org.
transcript
Info on how to prepare for a pandemic