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LISA MULLINS: I'm Lisa Mullins. And this is The World. The last time there was a health scare as big as swine flu was 2003. About 800 people died from the outbreak of SARS. And there were real fears that the pandemic would throttle Asian economies. That didn't happen. Asian countries grew at about half a percentage point less because of SARS. Today, the international economy is already in bad shape. So, does that mean swine flu will have an even greater impact? Here's The World's Matthew Bell.

MATTHEW BELL: The World Health Organization is being very cautious about the swine flu. The WHO has raised the alert level on the virus to Phase 4. That means it's jumping from person to person. But it doesn't mean that the swine flu will turn into a global pandemic. Nevertheless, Keiji Fukuda of the WHO says all nations still need to prepare for the worst.

KEIJI FUKUDA: We really are in a period in which countries should take this opportunity to really prepare themselves for the possibility of a pandemic, especially for the countries which are not yet dealing with an established infection in their countries. This is really an important time to look at your plans and to prepare as much as possible.

BELL: Health experts are working to find out how fast the virus is spreading and how dangerous it is. These are the key factors in determining how the swine flu will impact people's lives and by extension, hurt the already-struggling global economy. So far, says Michael Greenberger, the news is encouraging. Greenberger is the director of the University of Maryland Center for Health and Homeland Security.

MICHAEL GREENBERGER: Outside of Mexico those who have contracted the virus have had relatively mild symptoms. Now, these viruses can alter themselves and change so this isn't a status quo kind of situation and health officials all over the world are aggressively poised to watch this thing to see if it gets worse than what we're experiencing now.

BELL: A truly global pandemic could wipe out three trillion dollars of global wealth. It could kill more than 70 million people and cause a worldwide financial crisis, that's according to a study by the World Bank. But World Bank officials said today that we're not even close to that kind of situation yet. It's just too early to estimate the damage that this flu outbreak might cause. There have been some signs of economic trouble though. Travel and tourism-related stocks are taking a big hit. And Russia, for example, has banned pork imports from Mexico and parts of the United States. Never mind that people don't get the swine flu from eating pork. Ed Friedman of Moody's Economy.com says some industries are especially vulnerable.

ED FRIEDMAN: There is a potential for some negative effect, however generally speaking it is likely to be a relatively small one unless the size epidemiologically is a whole lot larger than people now think it will be.

BELL: Friedman says it's misleading to compare the current situation to the great flu pandemic of 1918 that killed at least 20 million people worldwide. After all, that was before the existence of weapons like vaccines and anti-biotics, not to mention, instant communication among global public health agencies. For The World, I'm Matthew Bell.

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