Anchor Lisa Mullins speaks with the BBC's Mike Sergeant about today's suicide bombing in Baghdad. It's the second attack in three days, sparking fears that a resurgence of violence will disrupt US plans to draw down its forces.
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LISA MULLINS: I'm Lisa Mullins, and this is The World. The US is on its way out of Iraq, eventually. President Obama has announced timelines, scheduled withdrawals and set end dates. But Mr. Obama's best-laid plans could go awry if local Iraqi forces can't fill the gap. Well, today there was a reminder of what that scenario could look like. A suicide bomber attacked a meeting of Iraqi army officers and tribal chiefs in western Baghdad. At least 33 people were killed. More than 40 people were wounded. The BBC's Mike Sergeant is in Baghdad. What happened, Mike?
MIKE SERGEANT: This was a meeting of local politicians in the Abu Ghraib area of western Baghdad. And officials and army officers had gathered for this conference in the town hall in Abu Ghraib. When the meeting had finished, they came out of the building to the street outside, where there's also a market, and there a suicide bomber exploded his vest, killing a large number of the delegates, including two senior commanders of the Iraqi army and a number of journalists who had been covering the event as well.
MULLINS: I think one of the things that's even more chilling about this is that it's only been a couple of days since another major attack in Baghdad. Then there were a number of minor attacks as you know, from Basra in the south to Mosul in the north. Can you tell us what the reaction is there among authorities in Baghdad? How seriously are they taking the spike in violence?
SERGEANT: Well, it is a worry because in recent months, a lot of people have been expressing the view that we were enjoying ever improving security in Iraq. But in recent days, there have been a number of attacks, and three pretty big attacks. So it's very hard to say whether these events are linked, whether they do represent a definite increase in violence overall. But certainly, they are a cause for considerable anxiety among political leaders, I would imagine, both in Baghdad and in Washington.
MULLINS: Mike, let me run a quote by you. This is from one government minister in Baghdad who told the BBC Arabic Service that some of his colleagues are too optimistic about the possibility of eradicating terrorism in Iraq. In fact, he said that to the contrary, there are some factors right now that could make the violence worse. Let's hear some of what he had to say:
“The US troop withdrawal and the outcome of the recent local elections are the main reasons behind what happened today. We believe there will be more terrorist attacks.†That's Hussein Ali Kamal, Iraq's Deputy Interior Minister for Intelligence Affairs. He says the US withdrawal – which hasn't even begun yet. The largescale pullout is in September but he says it is a significant factor in these attacks right now. How common do you think that view is in Iraq?
SERGEANT: Well, that could well be the case. It's very hard to say what the factors behind these attacks may have been or the motivation, as nobody has yet claimed responsibility for them. The view of US commanders is that these attacks show that Al Qaeda is becoming increasingly desperate in Iraq and increasingly desperate to show that it's still relevant here. So there are risks that these kinds of attacks will continue, possibly increase as the US starts to withdraw troops.
MULLINS: The US troops are supposed to be off the streets of the major cities in Iraq by the end of June. Is anybody suggesting that because of this rise in violence that that timetable might have to change?
SERGEANT: It's possible. The timetable that's been set out by President Obama and commanders here in Baghdad – there is flexibility built into that timetable. It is dependent on conditions on the ground continuing as they are or indeed security improving. The key test of that will be the national elections that are due to be held later this year. If all is running smoothly up to and during these elections, then the timetable for withdrawing the troops, for getting combat operations finished by next August as President Obama has outlined, then that is doable although it's going to be very tough. If the violence does start to increase again, if the attacks that we've seen in the recent days are just the beginning, then that kind of timetable is going to be very hard to maintain, I would guess.
MULLINS: One final question for you, Mike. Of course as the United States pulls out, it's looking to Iraq to be able to respond to this kind of violence and in fact prevent it. How much confidence do Iraqis have in their security forces?
SERGEANT: Well, when you talk to Iraqis in public, when you interview them for the radio or the television, they often say that they're pretty confident that Iraqi security can move into fill the gap and that the United States soldiers can leave tomorrow. Privately, people are a lot more concerned about what happens when the US pullout does happen in significant numbers.
MULLINS: That's the BBC's Mike Sergeant, in Baghdad.
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