Israel holds its long-awaited general election tomorrow. The vote will decide who becomes Israel's next prime minister. The incumbent, Ehud Olmert, announced he was stepping down months ago. The World's Quil Lawrence has been on the campaign trail and he speaks with host Marco Werman.
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MARCO WERMAN: I'm Marco Werman, and this is The World, a co-production of the BBC World Service, PRI, and WGBH Boston. Israel holds its long-awaited general election tomorrow. All seats in the Israeli Parliament are up for grabs, and so is the Prime Minister's chair. The incumbent, Ehud Olmert of the centrist Kadima party, announced he was stepping down months ago. Campaigning has taken place against a backdrop of continuing violence between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. The World's Quil Lawrence is in Jerusalem. And Quil, you've been out and about after those bloody few weeks of Israel's military campaign in Gaza and the Gazans fighting back. What's the mood on the campaign trail right now?
QUIL LAWRENCE: Well, it's amazing. A lot of people are remarking that they've never heard of so many undecided voters this late in the game. Of course, as you said, even though it's been months that people knew this election was coming, the actual campaigning didn't start until after the Gaza offensive was finished. And so it's been a very short time – there's been no televised debate between the candidates. There are a lot of un-decideds, and even though there's a clear front-runner, it's not clear that that front-runner will be able to form a government or with whom. So no one really knows what's going to happen, and it's not even clear which way certain people on the left or right should really cast their votes.
WERMAN: And who is that clear front-runner right now?
LAWRENCE: Well, Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud party has been the front-runner for quite a long time, although his lead has been narrowing. And as a result, he and all of the other candidates, especially his closest rival, Tzipi Livni of the Kadima party, have been campaigning like mad. Netanyahu yesterday was up in the north, in the Golan Heights planting a tree – obviously trying to symbolize that he's the one who will keep all of Israel's territory, whereas perhaps Tzipi Livni might be willing to give the Golan Heights back to Syria in a peace deal. And by extension he's implying that she would probably divide Jerusalem as well or give back more Israeli territory in some sort of peace deal.
WERMAN: And who are you going to see out on the campaign trail tonight?
LAWRENCE: Oh, tonight Avig-Dur Lieberman is going to be appearing at the Western Wall, which is the holiest site in Judaism. He's considered a far right candidate in many respects, in that he's got an extremely hard line against not only negotiations with Palestinians, but also Arab citizens of Israel. He's been campaigning on the idea of a loyalty oath that would make Arab citizens of Israel swear some sort of oath of loyalty to the state. But he's actually possibly stealing votes away from the front-runner, Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu, in order to form a government will definitely have to invite Lieberman into his government, and it's just not clear how big a position he'll have to promise him.
WERMAN: It sounds like whoever the victor is, there's going to be a lot of horse-trading in the coming weeks?
LAWRENCE: Absolutely. I mean, it gets even more interesting. Even though everyone says this is going to be a victory for the right wing in this election, you have Avig-Dur Lieberman, who is from a right wing party but who has some secular planks in his platform, being opposed by vociferously by the religious right wing party Shaaz, who have actually said that a vote for him is a vote for Satan.
WERMAN: Finally, Quil, Benjamin Netanyahu is generally seen as a hardliner when it comes to Middle East negotiations. What does this bode if he is victorious tomorrow? What does this bode for peace in the Middle East?
LAWRENCE: Well, there are a lot of people who are dismayed about this, about a government where Netanyahu might bring in Lieberman -- that it could be very bad for any sort of peace process, that it could be very difficult. Even the troubled negotiations that have been going on between the Palestinians and the Israeli government, that those would be scrapped. On the other hand, some people have been pointing out that it is usually right-wingers who end up making the deals in the past. It was a right-wing government that made peace with Egypt, and it was the last government of Benjamin Netanyahu that actually signed an accord about the city of Jericho. So there are some people optimistically saying that you could have a “Nixon goes to China†moment where a right-winger ends up making a peace deal. On the other hand, at the moment, the other side, the Palestinian side, is in such disarray especially after this war in Gaza, that a real peace process looks a long way off.
WERMAN: The World's Quil Lawrence, in Jerusalem. Thank you, Quil.
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