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LISA MULLINS: As we heard in Gerry's report, it's hard to know for sure who is behind the interruption of the gas supply through the Ukraine. But the suggestion from European officials, as we also heard, is that Russia is to blame. Russian TV viewers may think so as well. Tonight, on a state-run TV channel, they witnessed a GazProm official ordering gas deliveries to Ukraine to be halted. A second, unidentified official is heard replying with a confirmation. Masha Lipman is a political analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Moscow. Masha, we're coming to you for the view from Russia. Could you explain first what you think is going on right now?

MASHA LIPMAN: I think Russia is taking advantage of its huge gas resources. Russia is playing hardball.

MULLINS: Remind us what Russia is requiring of Ukraine.

LIPMAN: Russia is demanding that Ukraine pay over $400 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas, whereas for instance, a country such as Belarus, which is also used as a transit country through which gas is supplied to Europe and which also depends on Russia for its gas. Belarus is paying over $100 for the same 1,000 cubic meters of gas. One interesting aspect that just emerged from a Russia official spokesman very recently is that Russia is attracting the attention of Europe to how unreliable Ukraine is as a transit country and call for the European countries to increase their rate of building a pipeline that would run across the Baltic Sea and would not use either Ukraine or Poland as the countries of transit. This project has been in construction for many years now. It demands a lot of investment and there has been a slowdown in its implementation not least cause of the crisis. So maybe Russia is indeed using this very difficult conflict with Ukraine to try and accelerate the implementation of that project.

MULLINS: I mean, it sounds odd because Moscow says its hands are tied. But as you say there are suggestions that the Kremlin is using oil and gas as a political weapon. Now, Russia is the world's second biggest exporter of crude oil, after Saudi Arabia. It gets half its budget revenues from oil exports. Why would it have to make such a statement at such a time, especially when people throughout Europe are experiencing extremely cold weather? Why would Russia do it now?

LIPMAN: Well, actually there is a formal reason to do it now, because the contract between Russia and Ukraine has expired, and a new contract should be made to become active as of January 1. The new contract means that Russia may dictate a new price. The fact that Russia is demanding that Ukraine update its debt is also legitimate. Except that given how many countries and many, many companies obviously because of the crisis are short on liquidity, many countries are indebted. To be so demanding, to be so uncompromised, sounds a bit suspicious that Russia may be pursuing those other than actually its commercial interests.

MULLINS: I wonder, also, that since this message is being felt in Ukraine. It's being felt now in Europe. Is there a message that also Moscow is trying to send to Washington and perhaps to the incoming President, Barack Obama?

LIPMAN: Well, I guess the main message Russia is sending is that Russia is strong, Russia has leverage, that Russia is not going to be soft on a country such as Ukraine, which actually has been on very bad terms on Russia since at least the Orange Revolution. Also Russia blames Ukraine, not a long time ago, for assisting Georgia during the war in Georgia this past summer. So given that Ukraine is certainly not regarded as a friendly country in Moscow, the message is I think that Russia should not be expected to be soft. That Russia has its interests, it will pursue its interests, and it does not intend to actually give up to anybody's pressure.

MULLINS: Okay. Masha Lipman is a political analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaking to us from Moscow. Thank you very much.

LIPMAN: My pleasure.

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