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LISA: I'm Lisa Mullins, and this is The World, a co-production of the BBC World Service, PRI, and WGBH in Boston. Israel's ground offensive in Gaza entered a third day today. So far, over 500 Palestinians have died there since the start of the overall military incursion. Five Israelis have been killed. Israel has said that its goal is to end Hamas's ability to shoot rockets into southern Israel. What's less clear is what Hamas hopes to achieve with its rocket fire. As The World's Jeb Sharp reports, observers say it's more likely a political calculation than a military one.

JEB: To try to understand Hamas's motivations, it's helpful to consider its context. Israel and the United States call Hamas a terrorist organization, but it's a lot more than that, says Daniel Byman of Georgetown University.

DANIEL: It's also a social network, it is a social welfare organization, it is a political movement and it's part of an ideology. And with Hamas, what happened in recent years is that when they took power in Gaza, they became in effect a government. So they have all these different pressures within the movement, some of which are dedicated to violent conflict with Israel, and some of which are dedicated to taking out the trash.

JEB: And then there are the pressures outside the movement. Hamas is in competition and conflict with the more moderate Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. Steven Cook, of the Council on Foreign Relations, says Hamas's rocket strategy is part of a broader strategy to garner political support and outmaneuver its rivals.

STEVEN: What Hamas's grand narrative is is that Abbas's way of negotiation is really just a way in which the Israelis can expropriate more Palestinian land and delay ultimately the Palestinians achieving their rights. Yet, Hamas, by engaging in resistance and confronting the Israelis, will ultimately bring that date closer of achieving Palestinian rights.

JEB: Cook says the strategy is effective, especially when it provokes an Israeli reaction. Cook says he doesn't think Hamas expected the large-scale military operation now underway, but he still thinks it works to Hamas's advantage.

STEVEN: One of the things that Israelis and Westerners consistently underestimate or overlook in Palestinian society is what the Palestinians call steadfastness. In Arabic, it's called “samud.” It compels Palestinian society to coalesce and support the group that is specifically under attack. The Israeli logic here has been “if we pressure the Palestinian population enough, we will drive a wedge between the Palestinian population and Hamas.”

JEB: But that hasn't worked in the past, says Cook, and he doesn't' think it will this time, either.

STEVEN: You would think that ultimately Palestinians would blame Hamas for you know mis-rule and inviting violence upon them. So that's why it's difficult for us to really grasp this idea that in fact, the logic works in a completely opposite direction. And I think people don't truly appreciate the kind of historical social and political context in which Palestinians live under occupation.

JEB: Cook thinks Hamas is banking on a cease-fire in which it manages to stay intact, despite Israel's firepower. Daniel Byman of Georgetown, says the real question now is how the battle ends. Byman says if Israel is seen as being forced to retreat from Gaza, Hamas will portray it as a victory, much as Hezbollah capitalized on its war with Israel on Lebanon in 2006.

DANIEL: I think that's what Hamas is hoping for, is that even if it's defeated militarily, as seems likely, it will be politically victorious and over time that will increase in stature.

JEB: But Byman isn't so sure the analogy in Lebanon will pan out. He says Israel may be able to write a different ending if it prevails in a more decisive way in Gaza.

DANIEL: Right now Israel is not looking like it's beaten. It's not like the end of the Lebanon war where Israeli casualties were mounting. Right now, Israel is looking very strong and if Israel can end on a high note, I think it has the chance of winning the perception war as well as the military war.

JEB: One factor in the outcome will be how well Hamas holds up against Israeli troops on the ground. Another is how long Israel can push ahead with its offensive in the face of mounting criticism. For The World, I'm Jeb Sharp.

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