When Barack Hussein Obama places his hand on a Bible next month, most of the world will see his inauguration as a defining moment in history, the beginning of a new era. The non-white majority of mankind will feel a thrill of recognition and a common bond of humanity with the youthful, charismatic, dark-skinned newcomer on the world stage as he swears to faithfully execute the office of President of the United States. Europeans will breathe a sigh of relief at the end of an era in which American leadership was sadly discredited.
There will be some who will be less than thrilled of course. Russians have bad memories of their national humiliation during the Clinton years, and are not happy that Hillary Clinton will be the next Secretary of State. Arabs who view the United States through the prism of the Arab-Israeli conflict see the selection of Rahm Emanuel to be the next White House Chief of Staff as a bad omen because of his close ties with Israel.
South Americans question whether the new administration will change Washington's tendency to patronize and neglect its southern neighbors. But all in all, most of the world will be expecting President Obama to lead the United States in a new direction.
Change was the platform on which Mr. Obama ran, and won. But if we can judge from what he has done so far in preparing to take office, change is not what he will deliver. There will be a big change in style of course. President Obama will lead by example and inspire by the power of his persuasive rhetoric. He will make people feel good about themselves and about America. But he is not likely to make radical changes in American policy. Change was his campaign slogan. Continuity is likely to be his presidential policy.
American presidents are elected by American voters, not by the world. Mr. Obama did not receive a huge mandate. As he himself points out, he won by 53 to 47 percent of the popular vote. He will need the backing of a larger majority of the American public. That means he will need to reach out to Republicans and independents who supported Senator McCain. He will need to strengthen the right wing of his coalition. Therefore, he will conduct a centrist foreign policy.
A successful president needs to be flexible and change policies when facts change. President Bush governed as if he had a huge mandate to pursue a right-wing, hawkish foreign policy. And when that proved to be a mistake, he remained inflexible until the latter part of his second term, when he began to adjust his strategy in Iraq and became less confrontational in relations with America's friends and enemies. But by then, he had lost the support of the American public and the Congress. He lost the ability to govern. President Obama seems to be too good a politician to make that mistake.
Of course, the Obama administration will make some important changes in the way the United States government does business. President-elect Obama will close the notorious Guantanamo Bay prison as soon as he can manage, and that will please world opinion. He has promised to end some of the other abuses that were committed in the pursuit of Mr. Bush's war on terror, especially the use of coercive interrogation techniques that amount to torture. But the Obama new look will be more a change in style rather than a radical reorientation of America's long term goals and interests.
The biggest change in foreign policy is likely to be a change of emphasis from hard power to soft power – from an inclination to use guns to a greater willingness to use diplomacy. Mr. Obama has promised to open up consulates in the toughest parts of the world and to double foreign aid to $50 billion by 2012 (although he has begun to lengthen that timetable as a result of the financial crisis). Defense Secretary Gates has even suggested taking money from the Pentagon budget and giving it to the State Department to pay for increased diplomacy and aid.
That would not change the world, but it may be as much as a new President can do when he faces trillion dollar problems at home.
