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Angry bear | PRI's The World
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Angry bear

October 6, 2008 | permalink |

In 2000, a British television journalist asked Vladimir Putin, the new President of Russia, whether his country could join NATO. “I don't see why not,” replied Putin. “I wouldn't rule out such a possibility. But, I repeat, if and when Russia's views are taken into account as an equal partner.”

Three years later, Putin was still sanguine about relations with the West when he told the same British interviewer that Russia is a “friend” and “true partner” of America and Britain.

But recent visitors to Russia who met with Putin found him bitter and no longer hopeful about relations with the West. Putin told an invited group of foreign academics and journalists that the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, in which a number of Russian citizens were killed or displaced, was Russia's “9/11,” and said the West had let him down. He blamed the United States for encouraging – or at least failing to prevent – the Georgian attack. He felt that America was no longer a partner that Russia could trust. Putin was angry. His message to the West was blunt: “We don't want another Cold War, but if you want one, we are ready.”

What has happened to change Russia's relations with the West so dramatically? If you look at the world from Moscow's point of view, the answer seems clear. Putin took office hoping to make Russia a modern and integrated part of the West, a respected member of the international community with a growing economy. Russia reaped the economic benefits of the boom in the price of oil, but failed to get respect or even consideration of its interests and views.

Instead, America and its European allies flaunted Russia's concerns by recognizing the independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo without the approval of the UN. They changed the nature of NATO from a defensive alliance into a proactive military organization that bombed Serbia and is now fighting in Afghanistan. They pushed the boundaries of NATO right up to the borders of Russia and are deploying advanced American weapons in former Soviet satellites. Russia has historically tried to strengthen its defences by controlling countries along its periphery. As these buffer states now slip into the American orbit, the bear feels naked.

You can imagine how all this looks to the Russians, who inhabit a vast country with few natural defences and who have been invaded and occupied over the centuries by the Mongol hordes, Napoleon's Grand Army and Hitler's panzer divisions.

Russia has reacted by grumbling and showing its claws. It has started sending its ships and warplanes into America's backyard, South America, and one of its warships has made a port call in Libya. But that is mostly for show. Russia's military budget is only a tiny fraction of what the Pentagon spends.

What Moscow is trying to do is tell the United States that Russia is still a big power and should be respected. Putin still respects President Bush, and thinks he is a gifted politician. In fact, he says he thinks more highly of Mr. Bush than most Americans do. And, ironically, he told his recent visitors that he greatly admired the “propaganda program” the Bush administration organized in the American media during the brief war in Georgia. The Russians (and that includes the vast majority of the population) believe they had the high moral ground in defending Russian citizens in South Ossetia. That's not the way it was reported in the West.

It is worth noting that while Russia is grumbling it has not stopped cooperating with the West in a number of crisis areas. At the UN, it recently approved an extension of the International Security Force in Afghanistan, and voted to keep sanctions on Iran until it halts its uranium enrichment program.

Moreover, Putin's hand-picked successor as President, Dmitry Medvedev, makes a point of using softer language and a less confrontational manner than his patron. He told his Western visitors that promoting the rule of law and fighting the endemic corruption in Russia were his top priorities. In the opinion of some of the visitors, Medvedev represents both continuity and evolution of a Russia that is becoming a more Western-style country even though its democratic credentials are less than perfect.

One subject both Putin and Medvedev avoided was the American presidential election. They seemed cautious and perhaps a little worried about the outcome of the race, but expressed no preference between Senators McCain and Obama. It is not unusual for foreign leaders to worry about a change of administrations in Washington. They cannot cast a vote, but are sure to feel the consequences.

 

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