The Israeli press is full of disturbing reports of tension with Syria and Lebanon, and a rapidly unfolding series of events suggest that the Middle East might be on the verge of another outbreak of violence in advance of President Bush's visit to Israel next month.

Students at Givat Zeev settlement talking part in 'Turning Point 2'

All this week, Israel has been holding the largest civil defense exercise in its history. The exercise, named “Turning Point 2,” includes simulated attacks on urban areas by missiles equipped with chemical warheads. Sirens have sounded throughout the country. Children have been evacuated from schools and the elderly from nursing homes. Government offices were emptied as employees filed into bomb shelters. Israelis have been involved at all levels, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

Prior to the national emergency exercise, Barak cancelled a scheduled trip to Germany and visited Israel's northern border, where he vowed that the Jewish state was ready to strike anyone who tried to attack it. The Israeli cabinet decided to redistribute gas masks to the population. And Syria moved three army divisions up to its border with Lebanon. Both Syrian and Israeli officials have insisted they have no intention of attacking each other, but the Israeli and Syrian armies are reported to be on a high state of alert. What's behind all this?

Hezbollah fighter

Hezbollah, the Iranian and Syrian backed militia that controls much of southern Lebanon, has been itching to retaliate ever since someone assassinated one of its leaders, Imad Mughniyah, in a car bomb explosion in Syria two months ago. It was widely assumed the Israelis killed him. A Hezbollah attack on Israel – or inversely an Israeli attack on Hezbollah – would inevitably draw Syria into a wider conflict.

In addition, Israeli Minister of National Infrastructures Benjamin Ben-Eliezer (a former Defense Minister) visited the ministry war room during the civil defense exercise and warned that if Iran itself dared to attack Israel, that “will lead to a harsh response by Israel that will cause the destruction of the Iranian nation.” Ben-Eliezer said Iran would be reluctant to attack because it was aware of Israel's “strength” – a reference to its undeclared but widely known arsenal of nuclear missiles - but added that it “continues to aggravate the situation by supplying arms to Syria and Hezbollah, and we must deal with this.” He also reminded the Israeli public that the exercise this week was not a “fictional scenario” and said the real situation, if Israel is attacked by Hezbollah, “is likely to be a number of times harsher than that which we are already familiar with.”

On top of all this, rumors are circulating in Israel that the army is preparing to reinvade the Gaza strip from which it withdrew in 2005. The continuing rocket attacks being launched on Israeli towns from the Palestinian enclave are putting mounting pressure on the government to react. An Israeli think tank with close ties to the army announced this week that Hamas, the militant Islamist group that rules Gaza, now has 20,000 organized armed forces and has acquired long-range rockets and advanced anti-tank weapons.

Meanwhile, the United States Navy has been maintaining several warships off the coast of Lebanon since March. The exact mission of the ships is not clear, but it has long been a standard practice for the navy to move ships into the eastern Mediterranean when tensions rise in the area – a type of gunboat diplomacy that in this case may be aimed at deterring the Syrians from involving themselves in any move against Israel.

To make matters worse – if that's possible – there are no signs that the on-and-off Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are going anywhere. Israelis continue to build Jewish settlements in Palestinian West Bank territory, and Palestinians continue terror attacks on Israel.

The one piece of progress – if you can call it that – was a promise by Israel to remove 50 of the more than 500 army roadblocks that have made life miserable for Palestinians in the West Bank. That was the only apparent concession Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was able to win from the Israelis when she visited there last week to prepare for the President's forthcoming visit for the 60th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the State of Israel.

Akiva Eldar, a veteran Israeli columnist, this week urged President Bush to intervene more forcefully to implement his stated goal of achieving an Israeli-Palestinian agreement by the end of this year. Eldar observed that President Nixon believed “the key to resolving the Israeli-Arab conflict is a forced settlement that is not referred to as such.” President Clinton's approach was to propose a detailed peace agreement.

President Bush, he said, “specializes in ceremonies and speeches.”