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Britain Out, France In | PRI's The World
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Britain Out, France In

October 8, 2007 | permalink |

A new set of leaders is redrawing the political map of Europe and altering the relationships between the new world and the old world. It's one of those fundamental shifts in world politics that occur rarely, and usually as the result of major events. The fall of the Berlin Wall was one such event. This time it's a lesser event – a changing of leaders in three key European capitals – but its importance should not be underestimated.

Gordon BrownGordon Brown

Britain under new Prime Minister Gordon Brown is distancing itself from President Bush. France under its new leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy, is drawing closer to America. And Germany, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, who took office two years ago, has become less anti-Bush but also less influential in intra-European affairs. It all adds up to a realignment of Europe in which individual leaders rather than their parties have been the driving force. Both Brown and Sarkozy replaced leaders from the same party, and Merkel heads a coalition that includes the previous ruling party.

The result is that when American presidents need something from Europe in the future, the address they are likely to call on first is the Elysee Palace rather than Number 10 Downing Street. And Germany, Europe's biggest economic power, will be seen to be less important, to be consulted only when necessary. That's the biggest change in transatlantic relations since President Charles De Gaulle kicked the NATO military command out of France in 1966. It will alter the way American presidents do business with Europe for at least the next few years, and perhaps for decades.

In our unipolar world, European nations define their foreign policies by their relationship with the one superpower. All three leaders have made a point of differentiating themselves from their predecessors' attitude toward America.

President Bush and Prime Minister Brown's predecessor, Tony Blair, were best buddies, swapping jokes and enjoying each other's company in shirtsleeves at Camp David. Mr. Brown, by contrast, has spent as little time as possible at Camp David and kept his jacket and tie on. Instead of charging into Iraq with the British Army, he is pulling his troops out as fast as he decently can. Mr. Bush is reported to have spoken twice by phone with Mr. Brown in the three months since they met at Camp David. He used to have regular video-link conferences with Tony Blair, often weekly.

President Chirac of France was Mr. Bush's European bete noir. Chirac not only refused to support the invasion of Iraq, but insisted on telling America what a stupid idea it was and even told the East Europeans, who were backing the Bush policy, that they “had missed a good chance to keep their mouths shut.” He also delighted in telling the French how superior their bankrupt economic policies were, compared to America's ruthless “Anglo-Saxon capitalism.” One of the early moves Sarkozy has made since entering the Elysee is to send his foreign minister to Baghdad, to see how France could be more helpful. He is also trying to cut France's mammoth public debt and trim its lavish welfare programs. And by the way, he also made a point of visiting Eastern Europe just before going to Moscow. And in outlining his foreign policies recently, he spoke of the “brutality” with which Russia uses its energy resources. To top it all off, he has stepped up the pressure on Iran to stop its program of nuclear enrichment, and warned that allowing it to acquire nuclear weapons could destabilize the world and lead to “war.” Naturally, Mr. Sarkozy is more than welcome at the White House, Camp David, Kennebunkport, or anywhere else he wishes to see President Bush.

George W Bush and Angela MerkelGeorge W Bush and Angela Merkel

Chancellor Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, used to get political mileage at home out of poking America in the eye. He mocked President Bush and told election crowds that he would not “click his heels” and say “yes” to whatever America decides. Mrs. Merkel has reoriented German foreign policy away from Russia and toward America, but has to take into account her Social Democrat coalition partners' more sceptical view of America.

A senior White House foreign policy official told the London Daily Telegraph this week, “There's concern about Brown, but this is compensated by the fact that Paris and Berlin are much less of a headache. The need to hinge everything on London as the guarantor of European security has gone.”

And that, as I see it from this side of the ocean, is a sea change in transatlantic relations.

 

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