A profound change has been taking place in relations between the United States and Iran, but you would not know it from reading the popular press or watching television news in either country.
The United States and Iran have begun working together to stabilize Iraq before it spins completely out of control. Back channel talks over the past few years have developed into official talks in the past three months that included three meetings at ambassador level in Baghdad, and last week a new American-Iranian working group began a series of meetings to tackle Iraqi security problems.
The “Great Satan†and the leading member of the “Axis of Evil†working together to resolve the most urgent problem facing the Bush Administration! If that isn't news, I don't know what is.
So why are the media paying so little attention to it? The answer is simple. In America, most journalists don't understand the significance of this momentous development because the government hasn't explained it to them. The Bush administration has been playing down the importance of its opening with Iran and most of the media have adopted the same point of view – partly out of laziness and a depressing tendency to follow the government's lead in foreign policy.
In Iran it has been even easier for the government to minimize the press attention given to the talks with the United States. If Iranian journalists don't follow the government line, they can find themselves out of work, or worse.
To understand the real significance of the meetings, you have to turn to specialist sources of information. Stratfor, a reliable American think-tank and internet intelligence service, compares the Baghdad talks to the American opening with China.
We are reminded of the political problems faced by Chinese Premier Chou En-lai and the U.S. President Richard Nixon when their diplomatic opening became public. The announcement of Nixon's visit to China was psychologically stunning in the United States; it was less so in China only because the Chinese controlled the emphasis placed on the announcement. Both sides had to explain to their publics why they were talking to the mad dogs. (Stratfor, August 7, 2007)
Indeed, both countries are still talking in public as if they are still arch-enemies. Iranian state-controlled television recently blamed the U.S. for explosions that desecrated two Shia shrines in Iraq. The American military in Baghdad keeps feeding American journalists more “proof†that Iran is providing sophisticated roadside bombs to Iraqi insurgents. Most recently, the Bush administration is threatening to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist group.
Of course in many respects Iran and America are still enemies, but they are enemies that have decided to work together quietly out of necessity.
The Bush administration's exit plan requires a stable Iraq, and it knows it has little chance of realizing that without the help if Iran, which has close ties to the Shiite leaders who are now the dominant political force in Iraq. Tehran wants to consolidate its influence over Iraq and fears that the United States might leave behind a Baghdad government that would someday attack Iran again, as it did in the 1980s. So both sides need each other to stop Iraq from spinning completely out of control and dragging the rest of the region into a wider conflict.
The Baghdad talks may eventually fail, but right now they look like the best hope for the region. Both Washington and Tehran should start preparing their public opinion for the day when a deal is done. The Bush administration will need the backing of Congress and the consent of the American public. The rulers of Iran will have to tell their hardline supporters why they are making a deal with the devil.
In both countries, it's time for the government to level with the people and explain why they would rather talk than fight. That would make the media wake up and take notice.
