Why an ISIS affiliate in the Sinai is probably responsible for a Russian airliner crash

The investigation into how the Russian Metrojet plane was brought down in the Sinai Peninsula on Halloween is ongoing.

There is no definitive answer yet, but American and British officials have said there is a great chance a bomb explosion was the culprit.

Reuters reported on Monday that investigators are “90 percent sure” a noise heard in the final second of a cockpit recording was an explosion caused by a bomb.

The Airbus A321 went down with 224 people on board. Most passengers were Russian vacationers who were heading back to Russia from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

An extremist group based in the Sinai Peninsula announced last week that it was behind the attack that brought down the plane: Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, which began operating in 2011 and pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2014, claimed responsibility.

Mohannad Sabry, a journalist and author of a book called “Sinai: Egypt’s Linchpin, Gaza’s Lifeline, Israel’s Nightmare," says the group is known as the strongest branch of ISIS outside of Syria and Iraq.

He says if this does turn out to be an attack carried out by the militant group it will be a sign that the terrorist organization operating in Sinai is still intact, fully capable of running covert operations and it’s taking its level of hostility and level of terrorism to an extent that we have not witnessed before.

Sabry adds there are many groups across the world that pledge allegiance to ISIS — but ISIS rarely recognizes them. This group, however, has been recognized and even given an official name.

“How much coordination they have is a very complicated matter,” says Sabry, “but there’s definitely very clear coordination in terms of media, propaganda, recruitment and the capabilities of the group.”

The Sinai Peninsula has become fertile ground for extremism.

“It’s a marginalized region, the native community is under-privileged. It is left out of the government care and plans,” explains Sabry.

All this, he adds, while the Peninsula is strategically very important.

“Sinai has been a major arms trafficking route between Africa and the Gaza strip. … It’s the cornerstone of the Camp David peace accord. It’s surrounded from both sides by the Israeli border and the Suez Canal — which are both extremely sensitive matters to the whole world, not only to Egypt,” Sabry explains.

But it has been largely overlooked. There are signs, though, Sabry adds, that Cairo’s attitude toward the Sinai may be slowly changing, especially since last week's crash.

“The Russian investigating team was allowed [on the site] immediately, there’s an Irish investigating team on the ground doing forensic work … this is a good development,” he says.

Sabry compares this to the way Egypt managed the recent killing of Mexican tourists and says that this time the officials are taking care of the situation in a much more organized way.