The forecast for Syria: Clear skies with a chance of cluster bombs

The World
Syrians search for survivors after an air strike by a fighter jet loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Azaz city, North Aleppo, December 29, 2012.

Russians have an old expression — you can't argue with the weather.

Still, some may have found it jarring to hear a forecast promising clear skies and warm temperatures in October — in Syria.

A sign of changing times.

"Russian aerospace forces are continuing their operation in Syria. Experts say the timing was very well chosen in terms of weather," assured the weather woman on Russia's state television.

A smattering of rain and then "ideal military flight" conditions for the rest of the month.

Welcome to the Kremlin's new military gambit in Syria — well-planned, antiseptic and competent down to the season.

And it might sound familiar to some Americans, says Vladimir Ryzhkov, a former member of Russia's Duma and a prominent opposition politician.  

The Defense Ministry unveiled footage of Russian aircraft bombing unidentified "Islamist" positions that looked suspiciously like the standard chronicles of US air strikes shown on CNN, Ryzhkov writes in a column in this week's The Moscow Times. 

"Russian military commanders apparently took their inspiration from the US forces that they dream of emulating," he says.

There can be little doubt that Moscow has laid out similar objectives as Washington: To destroy ISIS before it brings terror to the homeland. Peace in Syria, Russia argues, can only come after ISIS is no more. The US might even agree.

But getting to that point is another matter. The Kremlin team is promising an air campaign limited in scope. Putin himself has ruled out Russian boots on the ground.

Yet the US and its Western allies suggest Russia may have another goal: propping up the government of Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad, Moscow's ally, in the process.  

Initial (Western) media reports suggest Russia is concentrating its air power on areas controlled by anti-Assad forces, rather than ISIS.

This week, the Kremlin pushed back against that narrative — chalking up such theories to an expansive Western-backed "information war."

Defense ministry officials noted that bombings targeted terrorist sites with "100 percent certainty." (Nothing like America's recent bombing of a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Afghanistan, seemed the underlying message.)

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova went further and challenged those who argue Russia was only bombing "moderate Syrian forces" to essentially prove it.  

How well these arguments play at home remains to be seen.

Russians have voiced tentative approval for a war on terror. Less so for Russian troops getting involved in the conflict directly.

Yet the media campaign is in place and already there are hints of mission creep.

Several prominent politicans — including Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov — have called for Russian "volunteers" to join the Syrian army in the fight against ISIS.

Such arguements are reminiscent of Russia's non-conflict in Ukraine — where the definition of soldier and volunteer have blurred according to Moscow's convenience.

What if, wonder some defense analysts, pilots are shot down? Or ISIS or another group launches a counterattack on Russia's base in the Syrian port city of Latakia? It's relatively undefended, they point out.  What happens when national prestiege is put on the line?

Such questions echo concerns from the Soviet invasion of Aghanistan — often referred to as "Russia's Vietnam" before the US's own actions in Iraq and Afghanistan arguably supplanted the metaphor. 

Heavy Soviet losses during its Afghan war led to public opposition to a war that seemed more driven by geopolitical rivalries than national interest. Sound familar?

Russia's actions in Syria are its first real international military campaign since the bitter lessons of Afghanistan.   

Ultimately, public support for Putin's Syrian war may hinge on a promised air campaign remaining exactly that — in the air.  

The problem — as the US, too, has learned — is that weather patterns change. 

And with them wars and lives.  

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