As oil and terror intertwine, Somalis want more from their government

MELBOURNE, Australia — On September 5, the US military confirmed that it killed Ahmed Godane in an airstrike south of Mogadishu. The Pentagon called it a “major symbolic and operational loss to Al Shabaab” insurgents.

A military offensive against Al Shabaab was underway in south-central Somalia, and Godane’s death was a necessary if transient victory. Al Shabaab quickly announced its new leader. Shortly, a suicide car bomber struck a convoy outside Mogadishu as “retaliation.” The convoy was operated by AMISOM, the African Union Mission in Somalia, a regional peacekeeping mission.

So, Godane was killed, but an uninterrupted war continues in Somalia.

The underlying struggle over control of natural resources sits at the heart of a protracted political conflict in Somalia.

In June, Petroleum Minister Daud Mohamed Omar of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) was invited to The Hague to meet with representatives of Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil.

A joint press release noted that the FGS “recognizes the rights of existing concession holders” — referring to Western oil companies that signed agreements in the 1980s but declared circumstances beyond its control after the Somali central government collapsed in 1990.

Recently, the FGS issued a public statement detailing the petroleum minister’s meetings with US officials and oil company representatives in Washington. The statement contains inaccurate legal statements, misinterpretation of the meeting’s outcomes and unsubstantiated claims of implied US support.

The statement asserts that US officials “acknowledged the primacy” of FGS in the management of hydrocarbons and minerals. With its legitimacy eroding among the Somali public, the question emerges whether the FGS has resorted to seeking an endorsement of its governmental authority by external powers and interests.

The statement blames “small hunting oil companies” currently operating in Somalia for a host of ills: “overlapping concessions, illegal contracts, environmental degradation, clan hostilities and undermining the sovereignty of the country.”

Ironically, it is the federal government’s polarizing policies that provoked instability in the regions of Jubaland, Lower Shabelle, Baidoa and Hiran. In July, a UN Monitoring Group report accused the Somali president of “exploitation of public authority for private interests” in a controversy involving the recovery of Somali national assets overseas. Further bankrupting the government’s credibility, Human Rights Watch issued a new report raising “serious concerns about abuses by AMISOM soldiers against Somali women and girls.”

The FGS signed a contract with Soma Oil and Gas, a UK company that never worked in the hydrocarbons sector before and lacked the requisite capital to satisfy its obligations. Among its founders was a defendant in a New York court case involving fraudulent activities.

The lobby group, East Africa Energy Forum, condemned the deal, saying it went “against the very principle of transparency and anti-corruption.”

While questions of transparency and capacity are valid, the fact remains that Somalia is a socio-politically complex domain, with a divided nation in arms, vast technical and infrastructural challenges, and a dangerous operational environment for any foreign oil company.

“The danger is that the race for oil will feed a destabilizing rivalry between Mogadishu and other regions,” the Financial Times warned last year.

Puntland region in northern Somalia is relatively stable and holds peaceful elections. In 2012, Canadian and Australian oil firms commenced onshore oil drilling in Puntland — effectively dismantling claims of force majeure.

Puntland-Mogadishu relations remain strained in a long-running dispute over federalism. On September 8, Puntland Petroleum Director Issa Farah told a press conference in Bossaso that the federal government “is violating the Federal Constitution” and declared the state government is “constitutionally responsible for the political and economic development” of Puntland.”

The separatist Somaliland region also challenges Mogadishu’s rule over resources. Somaliland signed an oil deal with Norwegian company DNO International, which Mogadishu accuses of “planning to introduce armed militiamen in areas already in conflict.” While Somaliland has not responded to Mogadishu’s latest provocation, UN experts have warned of "commercial activity triggering conflict” in northern Somalia.

Dr. Dominik Balthasar, in a report published by a Mogadishu-based think tank, makes a profound argument for caution: “There is a real risk that hurried hydrocarbon production that precedes the forging of a political settlement between federal members states and the federal government will spark violent conflict.”

The FGS has a national mandate and international recognition, but due to its failed policies of confrontation and coercion, remains a de jure state incapable of projecting power beyond Mogadishu.

Daud Mohamed Omar, Mogadishu’s oil minister, formerly served as a Puntland minister as recently as 2013, consequently illustrating the opportunistic character of Somali politicians, the country’s extensive and complex divisions, and the very fluidity and exploitative nature of its political institutions.

The Somali people want a federal government that can build peace, support functioning institutions and drive economic growth. The international community expects a responsible partner government in Somalia. Mogadishu should enter into constructive political dialogue with the de facto and emerging state governments to achieve a negotiated settlement within the federal framework that builds national cohesion and cooperation, and which is antithetical to Al Shabaab’s extremist agenda.

Yusuf M. Hassan, a Somali-American journalist, is a political and media analyst on Somalia affairs. He formerly served as Puntland government adviser. Twitter: @yhassan_