Whatever New Year's glow the markets were experiencing on 2012's first day of trading yesterday, London think tank the Centre for Economics and Business Research, poured cold water on it.
In a report published yesterday, the CEBR, projected that Greece will leave the euro this year.
In some ways that is not news, the conventional wisdom around Europe's capitals and financial exchanges is, Greece is gone. Even the Greek government admits that is a possibility. Ekathimerini newspaper quotes spokesman Pantelis Kapsis saying, "The danger for Greece is not yet over." Negotiations on the specific terms of the Greek bail-out agreed last autumn continue, and they are proving difficult.
What is news is the CEBR predicting with 99 percent certainty that "it is almost certain that the Euro zone will break up within the next five years and probably by 2013."
If I had a euro for every time I have heard a prediction of the single currency's demise going back to when it was first created I would be rich. I would also take those euros and buy dollars.