Global Politics

African union summit and Zimbabwe

(Are African leaders surprised or upset that Mugabe showed up?) I think they might be upset but not surprised, Mugabe has always been confrontational. (A negotiated settlement is on everybody's mind. What might a negotiated solution look like?) It might be like the solution in Kenya after their elections went bad, where both sides win. I think there's resistance to that kind of solution because civil society minders don't feel they should reward Mugabe, and that's not democratic. African leaders don't know what to do about that, but want to try negotiations. (What will Mugabe have to say about negotiations?) It's not something he relishes but he says he wants to hold talks. One other possibility is that Mugabe may pull in some other opposition members. The opposition leader's solution is to have Mugabe as an elder statesman and not president, but Mugabe wouldn't probably go for that, and the military as well. (The US and EU have been talking about a global arms embargo towards Zimbabwe, what are the chances for that?) I doubt Africa would go for that, but all this makes Africa very uncomfortable. There is some sense that things are moving here, but the question is how far and is it happening fast enough?

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