(Less than six months ago this same question was asked and Abbas would've been reelected with 59% of the vote leaving the Hamas leader with just 36%. Today that same poll puts Abbas at 51% with Haniya at 43%. So what changed?) The people of Gaza have been living in misery for the last six months because of the closure of their borders. When the border to Egypt opened it gave Hamas a big boost. Israelis have done nothing and now everybody is blaming Abbas for doing nothing. (Abbas was involved with Bush when he visited. Do these poll numbers say anything about the Palestinians' views of that peace process?) The Palestinians don't care about politics because on the ground their lives have been bad. And Bush coming to the region and leaving without anything happening on the ground, they don't believe them. They don't believe these promises of a better life and new policies. That is very bad for Abbas because he has to prove he's a good president. (So could Abbas be further sidelined to the point that he's an ineffective leader?) From what we see it doesn't look like Abbas could lose any elections now. but is he a strong president? Of course not. He has not delivered anything and this is what many people in Palestinian politics are saying.